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Happy Thanksgiving!

You’re probably about to catch up with family you haven’t seen in months — which means you’re also about to hear at least one “amazing investment idea.”

Some of them will be entertaining.
Most of them will cost far more than they’ll ever return.

But here’s the thing:
People don’t share bad investment ideas because they’re dumb.
They share them because no one ever taught them how to evaluate a good one.

So in the spirit of keeping your sanity (and your savings), I want to give you a simple framework you can use this weekend to separate solid ideas from wealth-destroying ones.

Why People Lose Money

Losing money in the stock market is a common trope. By and large, the single main reason is because:

Most people don’t invest; they speculate.

They chase excitement.
They chase momentum.
They chase whatever TikTok convinced them might “go to the moon.”

And honestly? I don’t blame them.

Gambling is fun. Las Vegas makes $30B a year proving that.

But investing isn’t supposed to be fun.

Investing is maintenance — like brushing your teeth. You don’t do it for the thrill; you do it to avoid pain later.

And as you can probably image, letting emotions — not analysis — drive your decisions isn’t sustainable.

So what’s the alternative?

You need a framework for evaluating an investment.

A good framework guides decision making and limits emotion from the equation.

This will help you filter out 99% of bad investments — whether it’s stocks, real estate, or private deals.

The framework I’m about to propose is three simple questions that will help you build a clear investment thesis.

Build a clear investment thesis.

Your thesis is your worldview.
Your rubric.
Your north star.

It defines what you’ll say “yes” to — before you put a single dollar at risk.

And almost every good thesis boils down to three questions:

1. Value Creation — How does this actually make money?

2. Moat — What protects that money from competition?

3. Downside Protection — What happens if you’re wrong? How do you survive it?

If you can articulate a believable answer to each, you’re already operating at a higher level than most investors.

Why does this work? Because it forces you to do two things most people avoid:

1. Explain exactly how value is created,

2. Provide the evidence that makes the investment safe enough to consider.

To make this practical, I’ll skip the theory and walk you through two real examples from my own life — and show you exactly how this framework guided my decisions.

Example #1 — My Thesis for Micron (MU)

Remember when I published stock picks? In my February 2025 newsletter, I recommend Micron. If you would have bought when I said, you would have made +127% in ~7 months.

Not bad.

So why did I recommend Micron? Here’s my thesis:

Value Creation

How does this make money?

I estimated the company was worth significantly more than the current trading price.

The opportunity was simple: buy a great business at a depressed price and hold until the market wakes up.

Moat

What protects that money from competition?

Micron makes essential memory chips for AI systems, data centers, and practically every device you own.

Furthermore, the industry is brutally capital-intensive — only a few players on Earth can do this at scale.

Downside Protection

What happens if you’re wrong? How do you survive it?

Because the stock traded below intrinsic value, I had a margin of safety.

And I was buying at the bottom of a cyclical market, meaning the downturn was temporary.

See how that works?

Not a vibe. Not a meme.

A structured worldview applied to a real company.

Example #2 — My Thesis for My Latest Rental Property

I closed on a new rental property in September 2025. Again, the same three-part thesis guided the entire decision.

Value Creation

How does this make money?

The seller was clearly motivated. They had failed multiple inspections, poured more money into the property than planned, and needed to exit fast. That desperation — paired with a series of forced upgrades — created value for me:

• Major capital expenditures already completed

• Lower long-term maintenance risk

• Reduced upfront investment

Because I had already spoken with my lender, I knew my expected rate and cash-on-cash profile. That allowed me to underwrite the deal cleanly:

• Put limited money down

• Have rent cover the mortgage

• Generate positive monthly cash flow

• Enjoy appreciation over the next 30 years

In total, it was a combination of motivated seller, operational improvements, and a financing structure that pays you to own the asset.

Moat

What protects that money from competition?

The moat here came from two layers: location and property type.

Location:
The house sits near Canton — a strong, established economic hub. That proximity gives the neighborhood real staying power. Westland isn’t an A-tier market, but there are solid pockets, and this property sits squarely in one of them.

Property Characteristics:
For renters, this checks all the boxes:

• fenced-in yard

• garage

• ranch layout

• three bedrooms

Tenants always need clean, functional housing. And in this location, demand is steady. It’s not a luxury product — it’s a durable one.

Downside Protection

What happens if you’re wrong? How do you survive it?

This property lives in a different submarket than my other rentals, which adds diversification.

The financing provides protection too: a fixed-rate mortgage that cashflows from day one.

In the worst case:

• I lease out the property at submarket rent and still break even on the mortgage

• Rents rise over time, putting more money in my pocket

• Rate were high, so I have the option to refinance when rates go down in the future, increasing my cash flow

Even in a slow or flat market, the property pays me to wait.

Why This Matters for You

Most people think investing is about predicting the future.

It’s not.

Investing is about understanding:

• how value is created

• how that value is protected

• and how you survive when things go wrong

Once you start viewing investments through a clear thesis:

• FOMO disappears

• the noise gets quieter

• decisions get faster

• and the right opportunities start finding you

And here’s the part no one talks about:

When you can articulate your worldview clearly, people start bringing you deals.

Founders.
Operators.
Investors.

They trust people with a thesis.

Whether you ever invest in private companies or not, learning how to think this way prepares you for opportunities you don’t even realize are coming.

And for me?

Let’s just say I’m building my thesis not just for stocks and real estate…
but for the types of businesses I might want to own pieces of in the future.

But that’s a conversation for another day ;)

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