I started acquiring shares of Salesforce on June 10th, 2026. And as of this morning, I’ve completely exited my position.
My return on investment was 47.7% in 5 days less than 4 months.
You may be asking yourself if you should exit as well. While I can’t resolve that for you, I can explain why I exited mine.
What I thought going in
When I was first doing valuation calculations, my worst-case anchor was about $175, using 85% revenue retention and 2% growth. This is the number I used to calculate my very conservative margin of safety.
A moderate case, with 8-9% revenue growth, steady margins and buybacks, gets to roughly $235-250. A bull case, where Agentforce lifts the core apps, gets to about $320.
Analyst consensus was around $250, right at my moderate case.
What I think now
This morning, I sold at $234.43. CRM’s price had briefly touched the $250s during the initial pop, but has since softened.
So where do we go from here? Well…I don’t know.
The platform lock-in is real, and early signs suggest CRM can integrate AI rather than be displaced by it.
So the real question becomes: is CRM a quality compounder?
Because if it is, selling a business like that at fair value means giving up years of growth.
Honestly, I don’t think it is one. It’s no Microsoft or Google.
Here’s my reasoning:
Slow core growth: The core Sales, Service and Commerce segment grew just 8% in constant currency, so total growth leans on acquisitions and still-small AI products.
Low-quality earnings beat: A $2.6B investment gain made up nearly 43% of non-GAAP EPS, so Q2's headline EPS overstates the operating business.
Murky AI growth numbers: Agentforce ARR was redefined this quarter to include Slackbot and Headless 360, so the 240% growth isn't like-for-like.
Capital allocation: Big acquisitions like Slack and Informatica bought growth, and margin discipline mostly came after activist pressure.
The decision
In short, my thesis played out. People realized the value, bought in, and pushed the price back up. The catalyst was a Q2 beat, a raised full-year revenue outlook, and an Anthropic partnership announced on the earnings call.
My thesis was asymmetric upside, and that's gone. At ~$234, holding means paying roughly my moderate-case value, so there’s no margin of safety left, and I don't have an edge on which way the AI question breaks. That's uncertainty I'm not willing to pay for.
So I'm exiting. I'm not calling it a bad company. I'm saying the thing I bought it for has played out.
The lesson
I lost all my gains on LULU, but I used that lesson to lock in gains for CRM.
Over these last several years, I’ve noticed that dispassionate analysis has helped me find a lot of incredible investment opportunities, but it’s self-awareness and regulation that allows a person to keep it.
Speaking of, I’ve noticed another pattern I’ve been falling into. For better or for worse. I’ll discuss it next time.
Happy investing.
