Folks, I realized recently that I made another purchase of LEN on August 20th and forgot to tell you.
Apologies.
There’s been a lot going on with the company recently, and it felt like a good time to provide an update as well as post some of the issues that occur while investing under uncertainty.
The Weighted Portfolio
Position | Weight | Cost Basis | Current Value | Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CRM | 13.32% | $952.51 | $1,404.12 | +47.4% |
MSFT | 9.79% | $889.30 | $1,032.34 | +16.1% |
LEN | 9.35% | $1,036.66 | $985.80 | -4.9% |
Cash | 67.54% | — | — | — |
Total ($10K basis) | 100% | $10,000 | $10,543.80 | +5.4% |
(Cash assumes $7,121.54 held flat with no yield applied. CRM, MSFT, and LEN reflect actual shares held.)
LEN (Lennar): LEN went from 0.81% of the portfolio to 9.35% since the last update. I'd been hoping to buy in the low $80s, but it never got there, and I've been burned before by letting the perfect entry cost me the whole position. That's what happened with CRM. So I took 11 shares at $86.17. Part of something beats all of nothing.
Then it got cheaper anyway. Rates moved up, earnings came in soft, and the stock dropped to $78. And…I didn't buy any more.
If you'd asked me a month earlier whether I'd buy LEN at $78, I'd have said yes without thinking. It's a name I already like, and by my own framework, cheaper is usually the point. But when the price got there, the reasons for the drop mattered more than the number. Rising rates and a weak print are close to the conditions I set as thesis-breaks: sustained rate pressure, and guidance cuts tied to real demand weakness rather than "rates are annoying right now." I hadn't hit those lines, but the thesis looked like it would need more time to play out, and I didn't want to add into that just because the price looked attractive.
I want to be careful not to dress this up as pure discipline, because I'm not sure that's all it was. Maybe I followed my own rules and correctly waited for confirmation. Or maybe I froze on a name I already own because a few weeks of news spooked me. I don't know which one this is yet.
It has since bounced to $82.15, so the $78 window is closed, and I'm sitting at -4.9% on the position. The next earnings should tell me whether $78 was a discount or a warning.
CRM (Salesforce): No new purchases, but the stock is at $234.02, up 47.4% on my blended cost basis. I have no plan to buy any more of this position. Actually, I’m considering trimming my stake because of the price appreciation. I just haven’t given it enough thought to act.
MSFT (Microsoft): No change. Up 16.1% since the post-earnings entry. This is still the "beats cash over five years" position, not a mispricing bet, and I'm treating it that way.
Cash: 67.5% of the portfolio is still in cash, well above the 25% I originally planned to hold. That's a drag on returns, and it's a direct result of how slowly I've been sizing the other bets.
The Ledger
Ticker | Entry Date | Entry Price | Current Price | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
CRM | June 10, 2026 | $173.08 | $234.02 | +35.21% |
LEN | June 22, 2026 | $88.79 | $82.15 | -7.48% |
CRM | July 23, 2026 | $155.89 | $234.02 | +50.12% |
MSFT | July 30, 2026 | $444.65 | $516.17 | +16.08% |
LEN | Aug 20, 2026 | $86.17 | $82.15 | -4.67% |
New line for the new tranche, per the rule. This ledger only grows, and nothing gets edited after the fact.
What's Next
Honestly, I need to figure out if I want to trim some of my CRM position. So maybe by next week, I’ll have a more solid answer.
Happy Investing.
