Valuing Pharma Without Being a Pharma Expert

A friend asked what I think about NVO

The Bitcoin Bottom That Didn’t Wait for Me

I had a thesis, a price, and three calendar reminders. The market skipped all of it.

Looking Away

How I invest in bursts, and whether it’s skill or luck

Know When to Hold 'em

My exit from Salesforce after a ~48% gain.

The Bet That Doesn't Need You to Be Right

What a 30-mile ruler taught me about structural investing

The Three Ways I Compound Capital

And why WING only has one

The 25% I Never Got To

A trade that's still good, at a price that's no longer as good

Catching a Falling Knife (On Purpose)

Exposing a contradiction in how I size positions

Why Berkshire Bought Google — And Why I Haven't

Berkshire got a seat at the table. I only get a stock price.

Reading the Radar

The three signals I use to find ideas before they're obvious — and the oil trade that proved it.

What Berkshire Saw

The $2.65 billion bet that validated my own framework

My Investing Blunders

A postmortem on the trade I won, then lost.

The Minimum Effective Dose

Stop doing too much of the wrong things.

Don't Optimize a Cage You Can Escape

Most constraints aren't real. They're just assumptions nobody tested.

What if investing was a game?

Not metaphorically. A

The Composition Effect

What Employee Surveys Taught Me About Stock Prices

The Smarter You Are, The Easier It Is to Lose

How overthinking costs you money—and why small actions create real insight

Where the Market Breaks (And Where I’ll Be Buying)

How the Yen Carry Trade unwind could create forced selling—and how I’m positioning to exploit the mispricing

Why It Pays to Be Tone Deaf (Especially Right Now)

How the attention economy hijacks your time horizon—and leads to bad decisions

The Feedback Problem in Investing

The Case for Beating the Market

What most people get wrong—and why the opportunity still exists

The Few Assets That Actually Matter

Why leverage is about structure, not effort

What Does Trump Know About Investing?

The overlooked strategy behind his biggest deals

Every Investor Plays a Different Game

Capital, scale, and attention create invisible layers of opportunity in the market.

When the Best Investment Isn’t the Highest ROI

Why efficiency and scale are often in tension